Making sense of numbers

The preliminary deer and bear hunting season stats have been released. The final numbers will be released with the 2009 harvest summary in March. I find the bear stats to be the most interesting.

While the underlying statistics are collected by wildlife management units (WMU), they are further reported by region. There are six regions, three greater - North, White Mountain and Central - and three lesser - Southwest-1, Southwest-2 and Southeast. The bulk of our bear population is in the three greater regions and with it goes the greater bear take. The overall bear take in 2009 was the second largest take ever. Some 106 bears were taken in the three southern regions and the balance 649 bears were taken in the other three regions. Bears continue to expand in numbers and each year the estimated number of bears living in New Hampshire sets a new record.

Due to the changing fall environment, Fish and Game relies on a rolling five-year average of bears taken as a benchmark. The five-year average take is 504 bears and this year's take was 755.

The availability of hard and soft mast crops is the dominating factor that determines hunter success. There are three methods of hunting bear: baiting, using hounds and still hunting. In the vastness of the northern part of the state, bait hunters held the upper hand. From the Central Region south, still hunters have the edge. I would suggest that where the deer season overlaps the bear season, the still hunters are really after deer and happen across a bear. This would be the case during muzzleloading season. In the southern part of the state, there are lower bear densities primarily due to residential and commercial development that has reduced the availability of habitat.

2009 could have been a record-setting year save for the factors of weather and acorns. The acorn factor meant that deer were less mobile during the season. There was no reason for them to travel because of the numerous acorns close to their bedding areas. The weather factor that is beyond everyone's control also influenced deer movement. When we experience heavy wind, rain, fog and warm temperatures, deer will simply bed down and wait it out. On warm days, the deer head for the swamps and restrict their movements.

According to Kent Gustafson, Fish and Game Deer Project leader, the lower deer harvest this year was also attributable as a residual effect of the severity of the 2007-08 winter. We entered this year's deer season with an estimated total deer herd of 85,000, so the 10,390 deer kill represents a 12.22 percent success rate. Gustafson also noted that in only 15 years in the past 50 has the total kill exceeded 10,000.

North of the Notch, the deer herd is still in a recovery mode and 2009 represents the lowest take in Coos County in the decade. Only Belknap and Cheshire counties showed any signs of improvement based on their increased registrations. However, the current numbers represent where the deer were registered and not necessarily where they were taken.

South of the Notch, the deer are entering winter in fabulous condition and are still feasting on acorns. The deer will make the first acorn find and much later the turkeys will work over the same area. The acorn crop also exerts a positive influence on deer reproduction activities. If we have a less than severe winter, you can count on many multiple births next spring.

A friend on mine who lives in East Concord had his tranquil evening disrupted by his dog barking at something in the backyard. Three deer were feeding their way on the edge of his property. One was an eight-point buck.

I suggested that in a couple of weeks he start scouting the run for shed antlers. Generally the time for antlers to drop is between Jan. 15 and Feb. 15. They can drop sooner or later, but generally this is the four-week period for maximum drop activity.

Bob can be reached at hunterscorner@aol.com

Bob Washburn